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A monthly survey of service firms in New York State, northern New Jersey, and southwestern Connecticut, conducted by the New York Fed.
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Note: Survey responses were collected between May 2 and May 9. Download the full report ![]() |
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Business activity continued to decline in the region’s service sector in May, according to firms responding to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Business Leaders Survey. The survey’s headline business activity index was little changed at -16.2. The business climate index remained firmly negative at -51.7, suggesting the business climate continued to be considerably worse than normal. Employment held steady, and wage growth slowed. Supply availability worsened significantly. Input price increases remained moderate, while selling price increases slowed somewhat. Firms were again quite negative about the outlook, with nearly half expecting activity to decline in the months ahead.
Activity Continues to Decline
Business activity fell substantially for a third consecutive month in the New York-Northern New Jersey region, according to the May survey. The headline business activity index was little changed at -16.2. Twenty-two percent of respondents reported that conditions improved over the month while 38 percent said that conditions worsened. The business climate index remained well below zero at -51.7, with sixty-one percent of respondents saying that the business climate was worse than normal. Employment Holds Steady
The employment index was little changed at -0.5, indicating that employment levels were steady. The wages index moved down seven points to 28.3, indicating that wage growth slowed. The prices paid index remained elevated at 58.5, while the prices received index slipped five points to 20.7, pointing to some slowing in selling price increases. The supply availability index fell four points to -16.0, a sign that supply availability worsened. Outlook Remains Very Pessimistic
The index for future business activity remained firmly negative at -28.1, holding at its lowest level since April 2020, suggesting firms expect activity to decline significantly in the months ahead; only 21 percent expect activity to increase. The index for the future business climate stayed staunchly negative at -45.9, suggesting the business climate is expected to continue to be considerably worse than normal. The future employment index held below zero. The future supply availability index dropped to -46.1, with over half of firms expecting supply availability to be worse in six months. Capital spending plans remained negative. Contacts Tech help: nyrsf.webteam@ny.frb.org Questions about survey/data: richard.deitz@ny.frb.org or (716) 849-5025 |
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Latest Report including charts of diffusion indexes Historical Tables |
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The Business Leaders Survey is a monthly survey conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York that asks companies across its District - which includes New York State, Northern New Jersey, and Fairfield County, Connecticut - about recent and expected trends in key business indicators. This survey is designed to parallel the Empire State Manufacturing Survey, though it covers a wider geography and the questions are slightly different. Participants from the service sector respond to a questionnaire and report on a variety of indicators, both in terms of recent and expected changes. While January 2014 is the first published report, survey responses date back to September of 2004 and all historical data are available on our website. Contacts |